I have been saying this ever since I saw The Hurt Locker back in July: “This is Oscar-worthy.” I don’t think you could say that for some of the Best Picture Nominees. There being ten, I was sort of OK with that. Just think how many films last year after seeing them did you say “This is Oscar-worthy.” Mo’Nique’s performance in Precious, Christoph Waltz as the “Jew Hunter” as one loud, drunk woman kept screaming at the table next to us at Oscar Night America, and the whole film The Hurt Locker.

I don’t really know if Avatar is Oscar Worthy, definitely in the category of special effects and technological breakthroughs. The film is an important landmark to innovative cinema but is that the touchstone of the Oscars or “great” films in general. I think not. Think about the very underplayed “No Country for Old Men.” The Coen brothers won big a couple of years ago with this bleak, sparse adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s novel of the same name. Crash might have tipped the scales to populist melodrama paving the way for films like Blindside or Precious (the latter I found Oscar worthy). Titanic and Lord of the Rings basically gave a template for the like-minded blockbuster Avatar getting on the Oscar ballot.

There was a pit in my stomach when the Best Director award was being given out by Barbara Streisand but if you know Streisand’s work as a director, her being the presenter gave it away. Kathyrn Bigelow made history as the first female Oscar winning Director. Maybe its not as groundbreaking as the first African American President, or the first animatronic sex doll in Japan, but it moved me to tears.

You could say the Oscars are more like the Queen of England, a figure head of the film industry rather than any impact on the industry. But look what happened to Reese Witherspoon after winning Best Actress for her role as June Carter in Walk the Line. After her win she became the highest paid actress in Hollywood. Jamie Foxx had a similar experience after his win for Ray. So what does this mean for Dir. Bigelow and the tiny engine that could, and did? Hopefully it means making more riveting, honest and compelling films and not selling out and becoming another convert to the presto-chango integrity crusher that Hollywood and big Studios have become.

Ok I’ve seen all the Best Picture Nominees with the last film I’ve seen Precious being the most fresh on my mind.

Here’s what the film has going for it:

Sundance Favorite

Harrowing story

Stylish and Artsy (Strong Direction)

Solid Ensemble performances

Here’s what will trip the film up:

Recalls a similar contender Monster’s Ball (Lee Daniel’s Produced MB)

Controversy with reaction of Black Audiences

Seen as melodramatic or contrived by some

Much like The Wire people/award shows have problems with a mostly African American Cast

The Hurt Locker and Avatar are pretty much a lock for Best Picture and take any attention away from the other 6 nominees.

Predictions: Mo’Nique will get the Best Supporting Actress. There might also be an Adapted Screenplay for Geoffrey Fletcher.